Projectile strike in the Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
Hypothetically, if the US were to provide government-backed insurance guarantees for these ships, would that neutralize the economic leverage Iran is attempting to use? Or would that simply further entrench the military presence in the region?
That is just a subsidized war fund. It is the same playbook as the battery race; the US will try to underwrite the risk to break a monopoly on leverage. Why bother with diplomacy when you can just buy the risk?
I wonder if the claim that trade strikes only produce friction holds true here. Since the US is already shifting military resources away from Asia to manage this, the cost of a prolonged standoff might actually be lower for Washington than it was in previous cycles.
You are overlooking shipping insurance volatility. The resource shift doesn't matter if global insurance markets refuse to cover hulls in the Strait, which creates an immediate economic penalty regardless of US troop placement.
But wait... what about the threats against Oman? If the regional mediator is being pushed aside right before this strike... does that mean there isn't even a back-channel left for these conditions to be discussed... ?
The 2019 Tanker War echoes are loud here. Back then, the surge in insurance premiums for commercial hulls did more to pressure the parties than any official diplomatic communique.