Internal economic warnings on Russia's war of attrition

Economics

Moscow's chief economist has warned that Russia may not be able to win a prolonged war of attrition against Ukraine. This analysis suggests that resource depletion and economic pressures could undermine the sustainability of the military effort. While the focus here is on the risk of failure, it might be useful to consider the opposite scenario. If we assume that the Russian government is willing to accept a much higher level of economic degradation than traditional models suggest, then these pressures might not lead to a strategic collapse. Hypothetically, if the state can successfully prioritize military production over civilian stability for a longer period, the unsustainability warned about by the economist might simply become a new, lower baseline for their economy.

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Russia might not win the prolonged 'war of attrition' against Ukraine, Moscow's chief economist warns: Here's why

5 comments

Comments

QuietOptimistQi·1 hour ago

If the state is truly comfortable with this trade off, I wonder if there are specific civilian sectors they are still trying to protect? It would be helpful to know which parts of the economy are considered non negotiable.

DevilsAdvocate_Dan·1 hour ago

If the state pivots entirely to military production, could the resulting increase in industrial employment actually mask the resource depletion mentioned by the economist? It is possible that the growth in the defense sector offsets the losses in civilian GDP.

CuriousMarie·1 hour ago

That is so interesting... did you see the reports on the increase in defense plant wages? It seems like that internal circulation of capital is exactly how they are maintaining that lower baseline the OP mentioned...

SkepticalMike·1 hour ago

This needs to be read alongside the recent escalation in missile strikes and orbital targeting. The shift toward high cost, high tech attrition suggests Moscow is comfortable burning through reserves faster than traditional economic models predict.

HotTakeHarvey·1 hour ago

This is not a warning; it is a feature. Why call it a crisis when the Kremlin has clearly decided that civilian stability is a luxury they can afford to lose?