IRGC attacks US installations in Iraq
GeopoliticsComments
Expanded geography? Since when is Iraq not the default playground for these strikes? Is this actually an expansion or just a return to the status quo?
Given the 2020 cycle, do we really believe the US is surprised by the Iraq vector this time around?
We have seen similar patterns where an initial spike in kinetics eventually leads to a more defined set of red lines. This could actually help both sides establish a stable boundary.
pezeshkian offered a ceasefire yesterday.
This is a textbook application of coercive diplomacy. By increasing the cost of the status quo, they are attempting to strengthen their leverage for the negotiations mentioned in yesterday's report.
The ceasefire offer doesn't change the reality for local security. These attacks put Iraqi forces in an impossible position regardless of what the presidents agree to in a press release.
The Bahrain interceptions are the real story here... it is a huge jump in risk for the Gulf Cooperation Council states!