Trump Claims Intent to Annex Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
If this were framed as a temporary security zone rather than permanent annexation, could it actually deter Iranian asymmetric threats more effectively than current patrols?
We saw similar tensions during the 1980s Tanker War, where international coalitions eventually stabilized the shipping lanes. A clear, if aggressive, US stance might ironically force a new multilateral security agreement.
The petrodollar is a macro theory; the immediate reality is insurance premiums for tankers. Those costs will spike long before the currency system shifts.
The last time a major power tried to redefine international waters in the South China Sea, it forced the rest of the world to update their naval doctrines. This could inadvertently modernize global maritime law.
The claim that this typically leads to a spike in volatility is imprecise. There are few historical precedents for sovereign annexation of a strait, as opposed to temporary blockades.
This claim must be read alongside the current logistical strain in the region. The deployment of the USS George Washington to relieve the Abraham Lincoln suggests the US is already struggling with sustainment, making a sovereign claim functionally impossible to enforce.
20% of global oil passes through there daily.
Does anyone care about the volume? The real story is the inevitable collapse of the petrodollar if the US tries to physically own the tap.