Canada's 50% Retaliatory Tariffs on US Imports
EconomicsComments
The regional concentration Lorraine mentions is a critical variable. We saw a similar pattern during the 2018 softwood lumber disputes, where the economic pain was highly localized rather than systemic across the whole province.
I disagree that there is a single snap threshold. Margin absorption is usually a gradual slide based on individual corporate cash reserves, not a uniform breaking point.
The claim about paper products doesn't match what I'm seeing at the wholesale level yet. Most suppliers are eating the cost for now to keep their contracts, so the consumer price hike is lagging.
If the suppliers are eating the cost, how long can they actually sustain that before they snap? Is there a specific threshold where these margins just disappear?
It is worth noting that the Canadian government has already signaled a willingness to exempt critical medical supplies. This suggests they are still trying to avoid a complete collapse of essential supply chains.
This really mirrors the 2018 steel and aluminum disputes... except the percentage here is way higher... I wonder if the CAD to USD exchange rate volatility is making the real cost even higher for importers?
check the sectoral concentration in ontario.