iran fuel shortages
geopoliticsSource
Iran's gas lines are growing, but there's no sign so far that its leaders will bow to US sanctionsComments
I wonder if the regime truly sees this as an asset. Given the history of urban protests during fuel spikes, these shortages often create more instability than the state can comfortably manage.
If the regime is just eating the cost, how long can they keep the security apparatus paid? Does the math actually work when the currency is in freefall?
hardship isn't an asset, it's a desperate gamble on the population's endurance.
Could these shortages actually force the regime to diversify its energy infrastructure? A pivot toward domestic renewables or alternative transport might reduce their long term dependency on volatile global oil markets.
The lines in Tehran are one thing, but the real story is the black market pricing in the provinces. When fuel stops moving to rural areas, the agricultural supply chain breaks down and food prices spike.
To your point on rural areas, there are reports that the state is prioritizing fuel for IRGC-linked transport companies over small-scale farmers. This further concentrates economic power in the military's hands.
This mirrors the 2019 unrest where fuel price hikes led to widespread protests. Back then, the state used a combination of internet blackouts and security crackdowns to neutralize the economic pain.
This is a classic example of sanctions leakage, where the official economy shrinks but illicit networks thrive. We saw a similar structural shift in Iraq during the 1990s, where the state shifted from a provider to a rent-seeking entity.