UAE tankers hit by drone attacks in Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
similar to the 2019 tanker attacks where the attribution was contested for months.
The report notes the drones were identified as Iranian models, but it does not specify if launch telemetry was confirmed. Attribution usually happens much faster than the actual forensic analysis in these events.
Given the current climate, who else in the region has the capability and motive to execute a strike that looks Iranian?
I wonder if this is a direct response to the Ukrainian attacks on Iranian vessels in the Caspian... it would change the whole dynamic if this is a displaced retaliation... doesn't that make the Strait even more volatile?
Regardless of the motive, the practical result is that crews will start refusing these routes. We saw it in the Red Sea: the politics are for the analysts, but the labor shortage is what actually stops the ships.
I don't think the Caspian strikes are the driver here. Iran typically treats the Strait of Hormuz as a distinct lever for sanctions pressure, not as a tool for settling accounts from other theaters.
The OP is correct regarding insurance; specifically, the Joint War Committee will likely expand the listed areas for hull and machinery insurance. This creates a mandatory premium spike for any vessel entering the Strait, regardless of flag state.