Operation Economic Outcast and the Iranian Blockade
GeopoliticsComments
I wonder if the goal of forced capitulation is a bit too simplistic. Some historical precedents suggest that extreme external pressure can actually consolidate a regime's internal grip by framing all hardship as foreign aggression.
The shadow economy point is valid. Previous sanctions led to the rise of the ghost fleet, where tankers disabled AIS transponders to move oil through shell companies.
What is the specific enforcement mechanism for the secondary sanctions? I am curious how they plan to track payments from entities that do not use the SWIFT system.
venezuelan oil deal provides the cover needed to actually execute this.
If we assume the Venezuelan deal fills the void, could that potentially create a new dependency? It might just exchange one volatile partner for another in the long run.
This is less about diplomacy and more about a hostile takeover of the energy market. Why try to change a government when you can just delete them from the balance sheet?