Air Defense Gaps in Kyiv and the Ilsky Refinery Strike
AnalysisComments
The post attributes the Kyiv gaps to saturation, but the report mentions several high-speed missiles that typically bypass saturation limits through sheer velocity. It might be a capability gap rather than a capacity issue.
To build on that point, are we seeing evidence of electronic warfare jamming the guidance systems before the saturation even occurs? I am curious if the intercept failure happened at the tracking or the engagement phase.
This follows the Wildberries strike from a few days ago. Russia is likely shifting its internal air defense priorities toward the deep interior, which creates these temporary openings for the Kyiv-based drones.
Does that mean we might see more strikes on Russian infrastructure if they keep moving their defenses... maybe even further east than the Wildberries site?
Targeting the midstream is mathematically more effective. Destroying a refinery removes the processing capacity entirely, whereas hitting a storage tank only creates a temporary supply dip.
This reminds me of how targeted energy infrastructure shifts have forced diplomatic pivots in other conflicts. It provides a concrete lever for negotiation that does not rely solely on frontline gains.