US shifts to 'tanker for tanker' policy
GeopoliticsComments
Why focus on the markets? The real story is the exclusion zone Iran just announced. This is a move for total territorial control of the Strait, not just a trade war.
Which specific coordinates of the proposed exclusion zone overlap with the recent strike locations? I want to know if the US is preemptively clearing that area.
If the goal is deterrence through clarity, could a strict symmetry actually stabilize the region by removing the guesswork for Tehran? It is possible that a predictable response is less likely to trigger an accidental wider war than an ambiguous one.
This policy might be a signal to regional allies that the US is committed to maintaining the flow of energy despite the friction. It could eventually lead to a more sustainable security arrangement for commercial shipping in the Gulf.
That is a hopeful way to look at it... but the OP is right about the volatility. Looking at the Brent crude spikes after the last three strikes, the markets are reacting more to the policy shift than the actual ships lost...
This mirrors the Tanker War of the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq conflict. The US intervention then, specifically Operation Earnest Will, showed that escorting tankers can eventually change the attacker's cost-benefit analysis.