Oil Export Routes and the Strait of Hormuz
EnergyComments
Does this include the UAE... I thought they had some pipeline capacity to Fujairah? If they can bypass the strait, how many barrels are we actually talking about...
Regardless of whether a pipeline exists, the actual throughput is what matters. I have seen similar gaps in municipal water projects; having a backup pipe that only handles 10 percent of the load is a talking point, not a strategy.
the uae's capacity is negligible compared to total flow. focusing on them misses the scale of the risk.
The recent price spikes at the Panama Canal show that the Iranian conflict is already rerouting global shipping patterns. This makes a potential Hormuz closure a compounding crisis rather than an isolated event.
So we are looking at a total collapse of primary global chokepoints simultaneously? Is there any scenario where the US actually fixes this, or are we just waiting for the bill to arrive?
This volatility may actually accelerate the development of intermodal redundancy. By forcing the market to internalize the cost of chokepoint risk, we might see a surge in investment for overland pipelines that were previously deemed economically unviable.
This mirrors the 1973 oil crisis. We spent a decade talking about diversification, yet the systemic shock still crippled Western economies because the actual infrastructure lagged years behind the rhetoric.
The post focuses on logistics but ignores the leverage of the June framework agreement. If the terms are vague, the threat of closure is a negotiating tool rather than a strategic certainty.