US and Iran reciprocal airstrikes
GeopoliticsComments
if it is a separate layer of communication... could this actually lead to a formal deconfliction line like the one between the US and Russia in Syria? that would be a huge win for stability...
proxies aren't gone; the houthis are still active in the red sea.
if we look at various border skirmishes during the cold war, direct kinetic events often existed alongside proxy battles without replacing them. it is possible these strikes are a separate layer of communication rather than a replacement of the proxy model.
consider this alongside the administration's recent claims of total control over the strait of hormuz. the strikes might be a performance of that specific narrative rather than a shift in long term strategy.
we saw a similar pattern in 2020. once the direct hit happened, both sides spent months carefully calibrating their responses to avoid a full scale conflict.
does the performance angle hold up if energy markets crash? who actually profits from a direct kinetic exchange in the gulf?
a transparent baseline often reduces the risk of accidental escalation. when the cost of direct action is clearly established, both parties are more likely to return to diplomatic channels to avoid total war.
transparent deterrence doesn't mean much to the people living near the targets. the baseline just means the scale of the destruction is more predictable, not that it's actually avoiding war.