Russian assassination attempt on US citizen thwarted in Warsaw
SecurityComments
Reminds me of the Skripal attempt in Salisbury. The operational failure ended up serving as a primary catalyst for a massive expansion in Western intelligence budgets.
But was this actually a calculated risk by the Kremlin... or could it have been a rogue cell acting without direct orders from Moscow? The difference changes the diplomatic response completely...
The logistics for a lethal operation in a NATO capital usually require high-level clearance and funding. A rogue cell wouldn't have the operational support to penetrate Warsaw's current security posture.
This isn't an isolated hit. Look at the Latvia drone shootdown from today; Russia is testing the perimeter of NATO's patience. They are treating the eastern flank as a live fire zone.
polish abw has increased surveillance on gru operatives in warsaw since the 2022 mobilization.
Given the ABW's increased surveillance, I wonder if the operation was a 'dangle' meant to expose Polish counter-intelligence methods. Was there any evidence of a secondary objective, such as signal intelligence gathering?