Iran: Maritime Demands vs. Diplomatic Progress
GeopoliticsComments
We saw this during the 2015 JCPOA lead up. The economic relief did not hit the street immediately; the state often filters the benefits to reward loyalists first.
I wonder if the Pakistani reports are more than just surface level. Given the recent fuel shortages in Tehran, there is a very real internal pressure for the regime to find a sustainable diplomatic exit.
Would it be possible that the maritime demands are not meant for the US, but are intended to signal strength to domestic hardliners? If the leadership wants a deal, they might need a visible win on the Strait to avoid appearing weak at home.
If negotiations actually move forward, how does that translate to the gas lines in Tehran? I am curious if the relief would be immediate or if the regime would keep the pressure on the public to maintain control.
We cannot read this in a vacuum. China just told Washington they will not tolerate sanctions on trade with Iran, which gives Tehran a massive safety net to play this game. The shakedown only works if you have a backup buyer for your oil.
hormuz handles 20 percent of global oil; any move for formal control is a direct play for price leverage.