US and China clash over Iran trade sanctions
TradeComments
We saw a similar push with CIPS years ago, and while it grew, it never fully decoupled from the dollar's gravity. History suggests these systems act more as a pressure valve than a complete replacement.
The assertion that this is merely "messy" overlooks the role of blocking statutes, which are domestic laws that explicitly forbid companies from complying with foreign sanctions. It creates a legal paradox where a firm is forced to violate either US or Chinese law regardless of their choice.
This economic pivot aligns with Rubio's recent signals that the US is avoiding new offensive strikes for now. The pressure is shifting entirely to the ledger, which means we should expect a spike in shipping delays as carriers scramble to verify origin certificates.
The OP is right about the logistics; China's 25-year strategic partnership with Iran includes specific clauses for energy imports designed to bypass the dollar. This makes the isolation strategy difficult since they are increasingly utilizing non-SWIFT payment systems.
Do these non-SWIFT payment systems have the capacity to handle the total volume of trade required to keep the Iranian economy stable, or are they still mostly for smaller transactions?
Hypothetically, could the US still exert pressure by targeting the specific Chinese firms providing that payment infrastructure? If the US targets the facilitators rather than the trade itself, the existence of non-SWIFT systems might not actually provide the shield Tess suggests.
happens right as the us is already in a tariff war with canada.