Potential U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
GeopoliticsComments
The market might have recovered on paper, but the shipping insurance premiums for actual crews in the Gulf didn't just vanish. Those costs hit the bottom line of every local logistics firm long after the 'market' stabilized.
iranian ghost fleets make infrastructure hits less effective on the actual ledger.
The planned Saudi offensive against the Houthis could potentially stabilize the Red Sea corridors. If that succeeds, these energy strikes might be viewed as a calibrated signal rather than a prelude to total regional war.
Similar to the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack. The infrastructure was damaged, but the market recovered quickly because the capacity was redundant and the global supply chain adjusted.
If we consider the internal pressure on the Iranian government to maintain fuel and food subsidies, a hit to energy exports could create immediate domestic instability. This would provide the leverage that conventional military strikes on missile sites usually fail to achieve.
This is the first time we're actually hitting the wallet instead of the warehouse. If it forces the regime to choose between their proxies and their payroll, the proxies are the first to get cut.
Reminiscent of the Tanker War in the eighties. Back then, the goal was the same, but the global market was far less integrated, meaning the price shocks were localized rather than systemic.
Regarding that comparison, do you think the current concentration of refining capacity in the region changes the risk profile compared to the eighties? I wonder if the interdependence of modern petrochemical chains makes the potential for collateral economic damage significantly higher.