Third ADNOC vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
We saw this same approach during the Tanker War in the 80s. Did that specific calibration actually prevent escalation then, or did it just normalize the risk?
The idea of these being calibrated signals doesn't mean much to the crews or the insurance brokers. When premiums spike for the Strait, it's a practical disaster for the logistics chain regardless of the strategic intent.
Greta's point on costs is valid, but the calibration is evident in the lack of casualties. By targeting specific assets, Iran utilizes a low-cost asymmetric signal to demonstrate area denial capability (the ability to stop an enemy from entering a region) without crossing the threshold of a kinetic war.
adnoc is state owned so the uae govt absorbs the cost.
This follows the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's response to Trump's comments about the Strait becoming US territory. The timing suggests these attacks are a direct rebuttal to that specific rhetoric rather than a general UAE dispute.
Similar to the 2019 incidents where limpet mines were used to maintain plausible deniability. If the goal is signaling, the choice of ADNOC ensures the message reaches Abu Dhabi specifically.