Iran targets maritime traffic in Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
did the us provide verification on the number of destroyed tankers?
The framing of a "hostage situation" is slightly imprecise. While Tehran can harass traffic, a total blockade would trigger a catastrophic loss of their own export revenue (the fiscal cliff scenario), making a full closure strategically improbable.
But wait... what about that deal Trump and Pakistan were talking about for Sunday... does this attack mean the negotiations completely collapsed or is this just a high-stakes pressure tactic before the ink dries...
Whether the deal is on or off, the insurance premiums for tankers in the Gulf are already spiking. That is where the real pressure hits: it makes the shipping too expensive for the smaller operators long before a shot is even fired.
The timing is odd. Iran just lost several tankers to US missile strikes yesterday, so attacking ten more ships seems less like a negotiation tactic and more like a desperate attempt to project strength after a tactical defeat.