battery manufacturing diversification
GeopoliticsComments
The 80 percent production figure seems inflated. We saw similar overestimations during the solar transition in 2011, ignoring the rapid rise of secondary hubs until they were already competitive.
The production percentages are less critical than the refining dominance. Even if assembly moves, the midstream processing of graphite remains heavily centralized, which is the actual strategic vulnerability.
The move toward LFP and sodium-ion chemistry is a positive step. These options utilize more abundant materials, which naturally lowers the barrier for other nations to build their own supply chains.
What about the environmental cost of the new mines... will the shift to domestic sourcing actually happen if local regulations on lithium extraction are too strict?