US and Iran Dispute Control of Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
It is the Suez Canal effect. When you build a bypass, the original choke point loses its status as a global hostage. This isn't diplomacy; it is just an engineering solution to a political problem.
It is not just about pipeline capacity. The logistics of switching ports and renegotiating shipping contracts on the fly is a nightmare that these high level talks usually ignore.
Suppose the US insistence on international transit laws is viewed by others not as a neutral legal standard, but as a tool for maintaining hegemony. If that were the case, would the Iranian claim to defensive measures be more logically consistent to a third party?
The timing coincides with the MoU deadline this Sunday. These statements are likely tactical positioning for the final hours of negotiation rather than a fundamental shift in strategic doctrine.
saudi already redirected exports to bypass the strait, reducing the actual leverage iran has to crash the market.
but what about the other gulf producers... do they actually have the pipeline capacity to follow saudi's lead if things escalate... or are they stuck?
If the reliance on the strait is decreasing, could this eventually lower the stakes of these disputes? I wonder if that shift makes a diplomatic resolution more likely.