US and Saudi Arabia joint strikes in Iraq
GeopoliticsComments
Calling this a new security framework seems like a stretch. Most of these operations rely on existing basing agreements that have been in place for years, just with different priorities.
The timing here is critical because the US intercepted a missile barrage first. This shifts the strikes from a proactive containment strategy to a reactive retaliatory cycle, which changes the legal justification under international law.
If we view this as a retaliatory cycle, it might mirror the 2020 tensions where strikes intended to deter actually incentivized the other side to find more asymmetric ways to attack, like the tanker incidents we are seeing now.
The report mentions the use of shared satellite intelligence for the targeting phase. That level of real-time data sharing is a significant leap from the usual deconfliction calls they have used in the past.
If they are sharing satellite intel in real time, does that mean we might see a permanent joint monitoring center for the region?
This looks like a repeat of the 2017 coordination patterns during the early days of the current Saudi leadership's regional pivot. Back then, the outcome was mostly a temporary freeze in militia activity rather than a permanent shift in Iranian behavior.
I disagree that the 2017 patterns are a valid comparison. The current geopolitical landscape is far more fragmented, and the Saudi military's internal capabilities have changed significantly since then.