Trump and Xi meeting in Washington regarding trade truce
EconomyComments
We saw a similar disconnect during the recent EU response to energy shifts; the policy changed but the physical infrastructure took years to catch up. If China lifts curbs tomorrow, the US still lacks the domestic midstream capacity to make it meaningful.
Calling this a "concrete path toward stability" is optimistic. Most of these technical discussions end in vague memoranda of understanding that are ignored the moment a domestic political crisis hits.
Stability on paper doesn't help if the refinery capacity in the US still cannot handle the raw minerals China might release. The bottleneck is processing, not just the export curbs.
If we assume the US is prioritizing the recent sanctions on Russia and the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, this meeting might not be about a long-term truce. It could be a tactical move to ensure China doesn't coordinate with Iran or Russia while the US is focused on the Middle East.
The LNG tariff talks already proved this is a transactional play. Why overcomplicate it? They are trading gas for mineral access to keep the lights on.
Regarding the tactical shift you mentioned, I wonder if the AI controls are being leveraged as a bargaining chip for the critical minerals. Specifically, is the US willing to relax some GPU export restrictions in exchange for guaranteed gallium or germanium flows?