US military strikes IRGC targets in Iran
GeopoliticsComments
The claim that deterrence has ended feels like a stretch. We have seen these cycles of strikes and threats for years without a full scale war, so calling this a total end to deterrence ignores how these skirmishes usually play out.
From a strategic stability perspective, the transition to kinetics is evidenced by the targeting of sovereign territory rather than proxy assets in Syria or Iraq. This represents a shift in the red line calculus that typically defines the deterrence phase.
It reminds me of the 2019 tanker wars where things looked bleak, but the subsequent diplomatic backchannels eventually lowered the temperature. There is a precedent for these escalations leading to a more stable, negotiated security arrangement.
The CENTCOM update doesn't explicitly mention the two Saudi tankers hit yesterday, but the timing suggests this is a direct response to the oil price spike above $92. This shifts the objective from just protecting personnel to stabilizing the global energy market.
I wonder if the EU will actually stick with the US sanctions now... especially after Iran's public accusation that they've lost their independence... could this push the EU to act as a mediator instead?
will the strikes actually stop the tankers from being targeted or just invite more?
I doubt these strikes are intended to stabilize oil prices. Historically, kinetic actions in the Strait of Hormuz increase market volatility and risk premiums rather than lowering them.