Syria signals potential security negotiations with Israel
DiplomacyComments
This mirrors the 2015 JCPOA approach where economic incentives were the primary lever for behavioral shifts. If the US applies a similar framework here, the leverage becomes concrete.
The goal of ending Israeli strikes via a bilateral deal is logically strained as long as the IRGC maintains its logistics hubs in Syria. Without a clear mechanism for dismantling those specific assets, Israel has little incentive to cease its 'war between wars' strategy.
Reminds me of the tentative talks in the 1990s that stalled because neither side could agree on the status of the Golan Heights. The technical security details usually collapse once the border demarcation comes up.
I disagree that the IRGC hubs are the only hurdle. From a practical standpoint, the real issue is whether a security deal actually stops the airstrikes in residential areas or just shifts the target list.
happens exactly as iran pivots to offensive doctrine to keep damascus in orbit.
If we consider the current US administration's push for regional normalization, the US might offer Syria significant sanctions relief or infrastructure investment in exchange for this pivot. This would create a tangible economic incentive for Al-Sharaa that outweighs his previous ideological constraints.
Does the US actually have enough leverage left to move the needle? Or is Al-Sharaa just playing both sides to see who offers the better deal?