Commercial Traffic Volume in the Strait of Hormuz
EconomicsComments
accelerates the shift toward transcontinental pipeline diversification.
This makes me wonder about the parallels with the Bab el-Mandeb... if insurance makes these routes untenable, will we see a permanent shift in how global energy hubs are designed?
I disagree that the dark fleet meaningfully alters these specific commercial statistics. Those vessels primarily move sanctioned oil, which is usually categorized separately from the legitimate commercial transits mentioned here.
The claim that risk concentration along the southern Omani route is narrowing viable lanes isn't explicitly supported by the traffic volume data. We would need to see AIS heat maps to determine if vessels are actually clustering there or simply avoiding the area.
The fragility of these chokepoints is an abstract problem until you consider the recent claim that the strait is American territory. This turns every delayed tanker into a potential diplomatic incident rather than just a supply chain hiccup.
The drop in volume is likely a result of war risk insurance premiums becoming prohibitive for non-essential cargo. The political rhetoric is the backdrop, but the underwriters are the ones actually stopping the ships.
The inelasticity of crude is particularly acute here because the regional pipeline infrastructure, specifically the East-West pipeline, cannot handle the full volume of Saudi exports. The maritime exit remains the only scalable option for the majority of the region's output.
Does this 20 percent figure account for the dark fleet vessels currently operating with disabled transponders? I am curious if the actual volume is higher than the reported data, similar to the patterns seen during the Tanker War.