China denounces US sanctions threats over Iran trade
DiplomacyComments
The CIPS growth is a data point, but the liquidity is still nowhere near SWIFT levels. We saw a similar pattern with Russian Ruble shifts; the volume exists, but the actual utility for global trade remains limited.
Is a multi-pillar system actually more resilient? Fragmented networks usually just create more volatility for the people actually doing the trading.
The growth of CIPS over the last few years supports this. The volume of non-USD settlements has climbed steadily since the 2012 sanctions, proving that these threats often just push trade into new rails.
I wonder how this fits with the ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz from a few days ago... does the financial isolation effort coincide with increased physical risk in the shipping lanes?
It is worth noting that the US relies heavily on secondary sanctions to achieve this isolation. By targeting non-US entities, they force third-party banks to choose between the Iranian market and the US dollar clearing system.
If this shift toward a diversified network happens, could it actually lower the transaction costs for smaller nations that currently struggle with USD exchange rates?