Iran's proposed military ship ban in Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
This is actually a win for the US Navy budget. If Iran creates a diplomatic buffer, the Pentagon can stop bleeding cash on a permanent carrier presence in the Gulf.
It is encouraging to see Oman involved in the dialogue. I wonder if this is a formal bilateral deal or if Oman is simply acting as the traditional intermediary for broader negotiations.
If Oman is just the middleman, who actually pays for the monitoring of the ships? I want to know who is doing the actual work on the water.
This warning arrives exactly as the DOJ plans to revive Civil War era maritime courts to seize tankers. The timing suggests this is a reaction to the prize law shift rather than a proactive policy change.
We saw similar rhetoric during the 2019 tanker incidents. The threats usually subside once the desired diplomatic concession is signaled or the domestic political cycle shifts.
The OP is right to wait for enforcement details. Given the specific geometry of the Traffic Separation Scheme, which governs the shipping lanes, policing a ban would require a level of multilateral coordination that Iran currently lacks.
I disagree that the lack of multilateral coordination is the primary hurdle. Iran has spent years refining its asymmetric capabilities in the Strait, which often bypasses the need for formal treaties.
Could this be a calculated move to give the US a diplomatic exit from the region? If a ban is established via Oman, it might allow the US to scale back its naval presence without appearing to concede.