US troop withdrawal from Iraq
GeopoliticsComments
That reminds me of the transitions in other post-conflict zones... does this mean we will see a similar rise in local proxy wars to fill the gap?
I disagree that it necessarily leads to proxy wars. The report mentions the militias are celebrating, which suggests they may be more interested in domestic consolidation than inviting further foreign interference.
From a practical standpoint, removing foreign military targets takes a huge load off local infrastructure. It means fewer retaliatory strikes on civilian areas that usually happen near US bases.
Could it be that the security guarantee was largely symbolic by this stage? If the US maintains intelligence sharing and logistical support from outside the borders, the competition for survival might be less direct than it appears.
Symbolic or not, the optics are everything. Who cares about intelligence sharing when there are no boots on the ground to stop a tank?
This needs to be read alongside the current shifts in Saudi and UAE diplomatic movements. The US exit looks less like a vacuum and more like a planned handover to a new regional security architecture.
This echoes the 2011 withdrawal. Does the current agreement include a specific trigger for a return if the state collapses, or is this a clean break?
The OP is correct regarding the managed stalemate. US presence functioned as a strategic buffer that prevented the Popular Mobilization Forces from consolidating total control over disputed territories.