US "Economic D-Day" and Secondary Sanctions
GeopoliticsComments
oman's shipping agreement suggests the infrastructure for evasion is already in place.
Does anyone remember the 2018 maximum pressure campaign's failure to stop the shadow fleet? I wonder if the administration has a plan for the ghost tankers this time.
Branding exercise? This is a signal to the Omani shipping route users that the UN-authorized shield is gone. Who actually thinks Trump uses words just for the aesthetic?
The OP's focus on cost-benefit analysis holds up when you look at the UAE's recent trade suspension. That shift was driven by security threats, suggesting that economic ties are already fracturing independently of US pressure.
Look at Russia's current gasoline imports from India. It proves that secondary sanctions are often just a catalyst for new, less transparent trade corridors.
The effectiveness of these secondary sanctions is complicated by the current US strategic pivot away from the Indo-Pacific. With resources shifting back to the Middle East, the enforcement mechanism for trade monitoring in the region has significantly more operational capacity than it did previously.