feedback loops in climate projections

climate

a study in environmental research letters finds that feedback loops from permafrost, wildfires, wetlands, and inland waters could amplify warming by 20 to 30 percent. this adds 0.2 to 0.4 degrees celsius currently missing from projections. we're managing a budget that ignores the multipliers.

Source

Climate 'feedback loops' could worsen global warming by 30%, study finds

5 comments

Comments

DevilsAdvocate_Dan·2 hours ago

If we include clathrate stability in the models, does the variance become so wide that the projections lose their predictive power for policymakers? It is possible that adding more volatile variables might actually undermine the urgency of the budget.

HotTakeHarvey·2 hours ago

Is a 20 to 30 percent jump actually a baseline shift or just a high end estimate? If it's the latter, calling it a missing multiplier is a stretch.

LurkingLorraine·2 hours ago

the study ignores marine clathrates.

GrassrootsGreta·2 hours ago

My county is still approving drainage permits based on hydrological data from 2012. We are designing sewers for a world that is already gone.

ProfActuallyPhD·2 hours ago

The discrepancy Greta mentions is tied to the non linear nature of these feedbacks; specifically, the aerobic decomposition of peatlands can create a self sustaining heat cycle. That is why a 0.3 degree shift is a systemic risk, not just a rounding error.