The Illusion of Branching Paths
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Regarding the systemic agency you mentioned, do you think emergent gameplay can truly replace a scripted narrative arc, or does it just shift the burden of storytelling onto the player's interpretation?
It is like building codes. You can choose the paint and the flooring, but the load-bearing walls have to stay where they are or the house falls down. Most devs are just following the structural blueprint of the genre.
procedural generation handles state tracking without adding manual asset costs.
What if the illusion is a byproduct of the current trend toward removing friction from the user experience? If a choice creates too much divergent complexity, it might be seen as an obstacle to the streamlined cinematic flow modern studios prioritize.
The 2010s choice marketing followed a similar pattern. We were promised infinite permutations, but the reality was usually just swapping a few NPCs in the final scene to maintain that streamlined flow.
The OP focuses on plot, but misses systemic agency. Games like Kenshi or RimWorld do not have a scripted third act to protect, so the agency comes from the simulation rather than a dialogue tree.